Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 62050.137403 65647.959556 69249.288712 73121.818642 77165.387555 81260.171311 85717.452733
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 56162.445939 61646.363915 67293.434557 73534.214996 80228.832154 87185.721383 94952.678281
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 51752.306996 58488.763987 65582.327036 73590.456131 82361.029015 91655.964127 102232.579283
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 48540.869523 56222.167151 64463.072004 73931.918548 84480.108694 95838.620498 108962.863522
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 45743.800734 54147.593949 63313.343268 74008.499775 86099.842643 99300.020696 114753.230865
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 44002.900900 53098.090754 63162.769902 75066.153658 88696.767881 103754.437858 121580.939660
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 41788.702426 51361.187236 62101.189662 74966.085774 89875.861539 106529.506085 126451.768324
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 40562.806645 50681.856727 62175.773087 76100.199156 92409.891353 110804.496550 133010.256406
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 39246.903773 49815.943259 61962.782908 76836.682952 94433.501311 114460.945685 138843.891460
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 37655.822429 48542.292416 61198.788516 76859.461204 95567.557131 117047.367679 143412.703253
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 36117.742145 47262.769571 60364.572853 76739.572253 96482.939157 119341.234744 147616.109303
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 35331.738400 46861.446462 60551.055038 77814.339451 98800.474080 123277.382418 153761.043533
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 34428.939076 46292.120285 60520.114886 78624.433621 100814.914435 126887.578837 159578.945092
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 33377.183370 45496.227860 60177.884995 79027.235923 102319.929344 129886.824160 164682.164185
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 32223.209721 44526.298609 59580.496490 79079.816370 103369.842977 132322.334716 169104.775412
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 31287.067025 43798.374693 59253.359154 79440.028609 104777.167548 135180.172134 174040.944311
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 30278.275717 42939.222692 58727.394155 79520.839343 105814.946420 137574.042431 178410.645336
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 29795.461485 42746.570436 59032.950977 80640.798107 108145.449258 141559.332925 184749.034307
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 28801.753033 41845.142359 58398.051686 80534.825074 108913.631938 143604.285261 188696.263495
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 28420.963821 41744.835376 58787.516871 81735.626814 111334.151343 147708.265152 195214.671968
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 27884.329608 41414.655929 58860.728300 82515.309055 113213.174445 151140.385039 200913.307041
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 27064.116395 40672.917742 58369.505657 82539.421912 114109.075674 153332.038487 205063.650218
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 26221.881996 39874.889816 57779.861001 82412.507021 114793.006561 155246.307508 208864.518703